Thoughts of someone outside of the book industry on this most interesting of topics….
I understand that as of now – May 2010 – the eBook market is still quite new. However it does have some disturbing trends already; the main one being device specific formats, aka lock-in. I believe that if you buy an eBook for your Amazon Kindle that book cannot be read on your friend’s Nook reader device.
Note I say buy, the assumption being these are NOT the free, out-of-copyright texts such as Aesops Fables.
Hence you cannot lend them that eBook, nor can they buy it off you (assuming you can somehow sell 2nd hand eBooks, legally). I understand that some providers will allow you to lend ‘their’ (your?) eBook out to someone else, but they must have the same device as you. So again device lock-in.
This is Blu-ray versus HD-DVD all over again. Or, if you are older, VHS versus Beta. Where there’s no neutral standards, vested interests dive in and format wars erupt. The consumer is the loser.
Time for a few predictions. I believe, within a year or two, there will be:
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An open, device-neutral eBook format. Not controlled by any one vendor nor publisher. It will support Digital Rights Management (DRM) including encryption and usage rights.
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Individual Users and/or the Reader Devices will have some sort of Software Key, akin to a unique ID. This not only identifies them, but takes part in the DRM (encryption and decryption)
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There will be a central, web-based Rights Management Organisation (RMO).
And, I hear you ask, how will this work? Well, a worked example:
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I have an eBook reader and decide I want to purchase a given eBook. I find it on the Web, from a suitable supplier
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I am registered with the Rights Management Organisation (RMO) already and hence have an ID Key
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I pay for the eBook via the usual means
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Once payment has been processed, the RMO uses my unique ID Key to encrypt the eBook – from the supplier – and I can download it
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On my Reader Device (etc) I ‘unlock’ my ID Key via a password, this unlocks the eBook
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At this stage the RMO also has a record that my copy of that eBook is ‘installed and unlocked’ on my Reader Device.
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I read said eBook and am thus happy.
Now the challenging question of lending out eBooks arises. Let me make an assumption, for the sake of argument. Assume when you ‘buy’ the eBook you also have the right to lend it out 4 (four) times.
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The person I am lending it to would have to be registered on the RMO and hence have their own ID Key.
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I access the RMO site, via a PC/Mac or even the Reader Device.
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I advise the RMO that I wish to lend User A ‘my’ nominated eBook, using my ID Key as verification.
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The eBook is uploaded to the RMO and immediately that eBook is ‘locked out’ of my own Reader Device. This exact process will be fine-tuned, of course. On my Reader Device it shows as being “installed but locked” and hence I cannot read it, until it is ‘returned’.
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User A is advised of the loan and they do the converse; accept the loan, via their own ID Key and download the eBook to their own Reader Device, which may be a different model and make than mine.
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The RMO is keeping track of the loans I make. So 1 down, 3 to go on that particular eBook.
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The reverse happens when they ‘return’ the eBook to me.
Notes:
The RMOs are key. They would be per-country initially with a global link-up phased in. I think they will be actually run on behalf of the publishing industry, but by a neutral body, at arms-length.
Libraries could also use the whole RMO backbone and may even contribute to the development of the standards and even the running of the RMOs.
Maybe the Reader Devices could also have their own Keys, offering another layer of protection/confirmation.
Given the neutrality of this new format, there is no reason why a publisher cannot directly market eBooks themselves.
By having this neutral eBook format, the RMO does not have the overhead of format conversion for a given User or Device.
The ID Key would be a PKS Key-Pair.
All of this is just speculation, with a dash of wishful thinking thrown in.